A hypothesis on the future of distribution (5-year outlook)

Here it is. Let’s see what you think:

Distribution is not going to disappear.
But it will stop working the way it has until now.

For decades, the model has been more or less the same: many suppliers, many routes, many visits, and enormous operational inertia. It worked because margins allowed it, and because the cost of not changing was low.

That is over.

Over the next five years, distribution will be forced to reconfigure itself under four very specific pressures: costs, logistics, and technology.

And that leads us to an uncomfortable but inevitable question:

Does it make sense for 15 different companies to supply and visit the same establishment?

1. The cost problem (that can no longer be absorbed)

Fuel, staff, vehicles, warehouses, insurance, financing, bureaucracy, and crushing taxes…
The cost structure of a distributor is becoming heavier and less flexible every year.

The current model multiplies expenses:

• • • Overlapping routes.
    • Small and frequent deliveries.
    • Sales reps visiting the same venue week after week for very similar orders.

For years, this was offset by volume.
Today, that balance no longer works.

Five years from now, margins will not support 10, 12, or 15 different suppliers visiting the same customer.

2. Logistics: too much complexity for too little value

From a logistics perspective, the system is inefficient by design.

A single restaurant receives:

• • • One truck for beer.
    • Another for wine and spirits.
    • Another for fruit and vegetables.
    • Another for frozen products.
    • And several more, depending on agreements and brands.

Each with its own schedule, incidents, and hidden cost for the customer.

The question is not whether this is convenient for the distributor.
The real question is whether it delivers real value to the hospitality operator.

Increasingly, the answer is no. That is why we will see:

• • • Delivery consolidation.
    • Shared logistics platforms.
    • Operators that do not sell brands, but service and capillarity.
    • Fewer trucks.
    • Better loaded.
    • Better coordinated.

3. Technology: the sales rep stops being an order taker

Technology will eliminate one of the main justifications of the current model: constant visits.

Automatic orders based on consumption history, calendar-based forecasting, smart integrations, well-designed digital catalogues.
All of this drastically reduces the need for physical presence.

Sales reps will not disappear, but their role will change:

• • • Less order taking.
    • More advisory work.
    • More judgment.
    • Less frequency, more value.

If orders can be placed automatically, why so many visits?

In the end, attending sales reps is also a cost for the hospitality operator. There is no better proof than showing that visits are no longer about taking orders.

4. The hypothesis

My hypothesis is simple:

In five years, the market will not be able to sustain 15 different companies supplying the same establishment on a recurring basis.

Not for theoretical efficiency reasons.
For pure economic survival.

The system will reorganize around:

• • • Fewer players per customer.
    • More logistical collaboration.
    • Real specialization.
    • And a clear separation between those who provide product and those who provide service.

5. This is not concentration by choice, it is adaptation

This is not about big versus small.
It is about viable models versus exhausted ones.

Some will disappear.
Others will integrate.
Others will radically change their role.

The status quo is not an option.

6. Who will make it — and who won’t

In this scenario, it will not be “the best” or “the most innovative” who survive.
It will be those who fit into a viable model.

Put clearly:

The distributor who needs to visit in order to sell will not make it.
The one who is called when needed will.

The one who competes on catalogue will not make it.
The one who solves a specific category better than anyone else will.

The one who duplicates existing routes will not make it.
The one who reduces deliveries, incidents, and operational friction will.

The one who calls digitalizing orders “innovation” will not make it.
The one who uses technology to eliminate useless work — their own and their customer’s — will.

The one who shifts complexity onto the hospitality operator will not make it.
The one who removes it will.

Everything else — frequency, proximity, “personal treatment” — will stop being an advantage when costs no longer allow it.

7. The conclusion (no detours)

Let’s go back to the initial question.

Does it make sense for 15 different companies to supply and visit the same establishment?

The answer is not ideological.
It is economic.

In five years, this model will no longer be dominant because it will not be profitable.
Not for the distributor.
Not for the customer.
Not for the system.

Distribution will not transform because of strategic vision,
but out of pure necessity.

And when that happens, there will be no time to adapt.
Only time to see whether you were already on the right side.