This is not a rough patch: what the numbers tell HORECA distributors

There is a widespread idea in the sector: "this is just a bad patch, it will pass". It is worth looking at the data before accepting it.

• Inflation is back. Spain's consumer price index stood at 4.9% in October, according to the flash estimate from the National Statistics Institute (INE). Core inflation, which leaves out energy and fresh food, is at 3.1%. This is not a one-off spike: prices are rising across the board.
• Money is getting more expensive again. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates twice this year, to 2.50%. These are its first rate rises since 2023. Anyone expecting cheap financing to return will have to wait.
• Governments have no room to manoeuvre. Spain's public debt stands at around 100% of GDP: roughly 1.74 trillion euros. With that weight on their shoulders, nobody is coming to the rescue of consumer spending.

Taken together, these three figures say something very clear: this is not a storm that will blow over in a few months, but a scenario that is here to stay for quite a while.

It is not just our impression

In recent weeks, two of the most closely followed voices in the markets have said the same thing, each in their own way:

• Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, one of the largest investment funds in the world, warned on 6 October that more government debt is being issued than the market can absorb. In his view, this will lead to a debt crisis "somewhere in the next two years". A week later he described the mechanism as a "death spiral": placing more debt means paying more interest, and paying more interest means borrowing even more.
• Deutsche Bank, in a report dated 5 October, warns that above-target inflation is preventing central banks from cutting rates to ease the situation. It also notes that bond markets are already showing serious stress, with oil at around 100 dollars a barrel because of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, while stock markets carry on as if nothing were happening.

In everyday terms: if interest rates cannot come down and energy stays expensive, diesel, the electricity for your cold stores and the cost of financing your customers are not going to fall any time soon.

The chain always breaks in the same place

In HORECA, this scenario does not hit everyone at once. It works its way down the chain, link by link:

1. Consumers pay more for their mortgage, rent and groceries. They cut back on non-essentials: they go out less, order less and choose cheaper options.
2. Bar and restaurant owners take in less while their electricity, produce and staff costs go up. Their cash flow gets tighter.
3. And the distributor, who supplies them on 30 or 60-day payment terms (the legal maximum in Spain, although in practice it sometimes stretches further), ends up plugging that gap with its own money. Money that costs more today than it did a year ago.

That is the real risk. It is not selling less: it is becoming, without realising it, the bank for the whole chain, just when money is more expensive and unpaid invoices are more likely.

The problem is that you cannot see it

The dangerous thing about this scenario is that, at first glance, everything looks normal. The lorries go out, customers place orders and invoices are issued. But underneath, there are signs worth watching:

• Your average collection period is creeping up, little by little.
• Long-standing customers ask you to "hold" an invoice for another week.
• Promissory notes that change date or come back unpaid.
• Smaller, more frequent orders: customers buy only what they need so as not to tie up cash.
• The product mix gets cheaper: fewer premium lines and more entry-level brands.

If you recognise two or three of these signs in your customer base, it is not bad luck. It is the bigger picture reaching your business.

You already know what to do

The measures are no mystery, and every distributor knows them: control each customer's credit, reward early payment, clear out slow-moving stock, tighten up routes and look after your solvent customers.

The difference is not in knowing them, but in applying them now, before the warning signs turn into unpaid invoices.

In a cycle like this, the winner is not the company that sells the most, but the one that reaches the end of the year with cash in the bank.

Our long-standing rule

At Red Paralela we follow a rule that makes more sense today than ever: we do not load goods until we have paid the supplier, and we do not deliver them until we have been paid by the customer. That way, nobody acts as anyone else's bank.

And if you have slow-moving stock that is costing you money, the parallel market is a fast, confidential way to turn it into cash.

For more practical advice for your distribution business, stay connected to Red Paralela.

Sources: INE (flash consumer price index, October 2026), European Central Bank, Banco de España (public debt, July 2026), statements by Ray Dalio at the Greenwich Economic Forum (6/10/2026) and Deutsche Bank Research report "What Are the Biggest Market Dislocations?" (5/10/2026).