{"id":1970,"date":"2026-02-06T08:00:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T07:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redparalela.eu\/?p=1970"},"modified":"2026-02-06T08:04:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T07:04:02","slug":"the-future-of-distribution-5-year-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redparalela.eu\/en\/the-future-of-distribution-5-year-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"The future of distribution (5-year outlook)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"196\" data-end=\"334\">[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1968&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;flipInX&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h1 data-start=\"336\" data-end=\"399\"><strong data-start=\"336\" data-end=\"399\">A hypothesis on the future of distribution (5-year outlook)<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"401\" data-end=\"438\">Here it is. Let\u2019s see what you think:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"440\" data-end=\"532\">Distribution is not going to disappear.<br data-start=\"479\" data-end=\"482\" \/>But it will stop working the way it has until now.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"534\" data-end=\"748\">For decades, the model has been more or less the same: many suppliers, many routes, many visits, and enormous operational inertia. It worked because margins allowed it, and because the cost of not changing was low.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"750\" data-end=\"763\">That is over.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"765\" data-end=\"910\">Over the next five years, distribution will be forced to reconfigure itself under four very specific pressures: costs, logistics, and technology.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"912\" data-end=\"974\">And that leads us to an uncomfortable but inevitable question:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"976\" data-end=\"1065\">Does it make sense for 15 different companies to supply and visit the same establishment?<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1067\" data-end=\"1123\"><strong data-start=\"1067\" data-end=\"1123\">1. The cost problem (that can no longer be absorbed)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1125\" data-end=\"1302\">Fuel, staff, vehicles, warehouses, insurance, financing, bureaucracy, and crushing taxes\u2026<br data-start=\"1214\" data-end=\"1217\" \/>The cost structure of a distributor is becoming heavier and less flexible every year.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1304\" data-end=\"1342\">The current model multiplies expenses:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1344\" data-end=\"1474\">Overlapping routes.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1344\" data-end=\"1474\">Small and frequent deliveries.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1344\" data-end=\"1474\">Sales reps visiting the same venue week after week for very similar orders.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1476\" data-end=\"1552\">For years, this was offset by volume.<br data-start=\"1513\" data-end=\"1516\" \/>Today, that balance no longer works.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"1554\" data-end=\"1661\">Five years from now, margins will not support 10, 12, or 15 different suppliers visiting the same customer.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1663\" data-end=\"1721\"><strong data-start=\"1663\" data-end=\"1721\">2. Logistics: too much complexity for too little value<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1723\" data-end=\"1789\">From a logistics perspective, the system is inefficient by design.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1791\" data-end=\"1820\">A single restaurant receives:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1996\">One truck for beer.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1996\">Another for wine and spirits.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1996\">Another for fruit and vegetables.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1996\">Another for frozen products.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1996\">And several more, depending on agreements and brands.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1998\" data-end=\"2070\">Each with its own schedule, incidents, and hidden cost for the customer.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2072\" data-end=\"2222\">The question is not whether this is convenient for the distributor.<br data-start=\"2139\" data-end=\"2142\" \/>The real question is whether it delivers real value to the hospitality operator.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2224\" data-end=\"2280\">Increasingly, the answer is no. That is why we will see:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Delivery consolidation.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Shared logistics platforms.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Operators that do not sell brands, but service and capillarity.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Fewer trucks.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Better loaded.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2282\" data-end=\"2456\">Better coordinated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"2458\" data-end=\"2517\"><strong data-start=\"2458\" data-end=\"2517\">3. Technology: the sales rep stops being an order taker<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2519\" data-end=\"2614\">Technology will eliminate one of the main justifications of the current model: constant visits.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2616\" data-end=\"2810\">Automatic orders based on consumption history, calendar-based forecasting, smart integrations, well-designed digital catalogues.<br data-start=\"2744\" data-end=\"2747\" \/>All of this drastically reduces the need for physical presence.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2812\" data-end=\"2870\">Sales reps will not disappear, but their role will change:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"2872\" data-end=\"2959\">Less order taking.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2872\" data-end=\"2959\">More advisory work.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2872\" data-end=\"2959\">More judgment.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2872\" data-end=\"2959\">Less frequency, more value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2961\" data-end=\"3019\">If orders can be placed automatically, why so many visits?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3021\" data-end=\"3183\">In the end, attending sales reps is also a cost for the hospitality operator. There is no better proof than showing that visits are no longer about taking orders.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3185\" data-end=\"3206\"><strong data-start=\"3185\" data-end=\"3206\">4. The hypothesis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3208\" data-end=\"3232\">My hypothesis is simple:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3234\" data-end=\"3365\">In five years, the market will not be able to sustain 15 different companies supplying the same establishment on a recurring basis.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3367\" data-end=\"3436\">Not for theoretical efficiency reasons.<br data-start=\"3406\" data-end=\"3409\" \/>For pure economic survival.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3438\" data-end=\"3472\">The system will reorganize around:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"3474\" data-end=\"3647\">Fewer players per customer.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3474\" data-end=\"3647\">More logistical collaboration.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3474\" data-end=\"3647\">Real specialization.<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3474\" data-end=\"3647\">And a clear separation between those who provide product and those who provide service.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"3649\" data-end=\"3709\"><strong data-start=\"3649\" data-end=\"3709\">5. This is not concentration by choice, it is adaptation<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3711\" data-end=\"3797\">This is not about big versus small.<br data-start=\"3746\" data-end=\"3749\" \/>It is about viable models versus exhausted ones.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3799\" data-end=\"3887\">Some will disappear.<br data-start=\"3819\" data-end=\"3822\" \/>Others will integrate.<br data-start=\"3844\" data-end=\"3847\" \/>Others will radically change their role.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3889\" data-end=\"3921\">The status quo is not an option.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"3923\" data-end=\"3962\"><strong data-start=\"3923\" data-end=\"3962\">6. Who will make it \u2014 and who won\u2019t<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3964\" data-end=\"4093\">In this scenario, it will not be \u201cthe best\u201d or \u201cthe most innovative\u201d who survive.<br data-start=\"4045\" data-end=\"4048\" \/>It will be those who fit into a viable model.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4095\" data-end=\"4107\">Put clearly:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4109\" data-end=\"4220\">The distributor who needs to visit in order to sell will not make it.<br data-start=\"4178\" data-end=\"4181\" \/>The one who is called when needed will.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4222\" data-end=\"4344\">The one who competes on catalogue will not make it.<br data-start=\"4273\" data-end=\"4276\" \/>The one who solves a specific category better than anyone else will.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4346\" data-end=\"4478\">The one who duplicates existing routes will not make it.<br data-start=\"4402\" data-end=\"4405\" \/>The one who reduces deliveries, incidents, and operational friction will.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4480\" data-end=\"4645\">The one who calls digitalizing orders \u201cinnovation\u201d will not make it.<br data-start=\"4548\" data-end=\"4551\" \/>The one who uses technology to eliminate useless work \u2014 their own and their customer\u2019s \u2014 will.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4647\" data-end=\"4755\">The one who shifts complexity onto the hospitality operator will not make it.<br data-start=\"4724\" data-end=\"4727\" \/>The one who removes it will.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4757\" data-end=\"4879\">Everything else \u2014 frequency, proximity, \u201cpersonal treatment\u201d \u2014 will stop being an advantage when costs no longer allow it.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"4881\" data-end=\"4915\"><strong data-start=\"4881\" data-end=\"4915\">7. The conclusion (no detours)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4917\" data-end=\"4955\">Let\u2019s go back to the initial question.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4957\" data-end=\"5046\">Does it make sense for 15 different companies to supply and visit the same establishment?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5048\" data-end=\"5096\">The answer is not ideological.<br data-start=\"5078\" data-end=\"5081\" \/>It is economic.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5098\" data-end=\"5258\">In five years, this model will no longer be dominant because it will not be profitable.<br data-start=\"5185\" data-end=\"5188\" \/>Not for the distributor.<br data-start=\"5212\" data-end=\"5215\" \/>Not for the customer.<br data-start=\"5236\" data-end=\"5239\" \/>Not for the system.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"5260\" data-end=\"5349\">Distribution will not transform because of strategic vision,<br data-start=\"5320\" data-end=\"5323\" \/>but out of pure necessity.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5351\" data-end=\"5468\">And when that happens, there will be no time to adapt.<br data-start=\"5405\" data-end=\"5408\" \/>Only time to see whether you were already on the right side.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5545\" data-end=\"5583\">[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1968&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;flipInX&#8221; css=&#8221;&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221;] A hypothesis on the future of distribution (5-year outlook) Here it is. Let\u2019s see what you think: Distribution is not going to disappear.But it will stop working the way it has until now. For decades, the model has been more or less the same: many suppliers, many &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/redparalela.eu\/en\/the-future-of-distribution-5-year-outlook\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The future of distribution (5-year outlook)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[862],"tags":[869,978,870,970,928],"class_list":["post-1970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categorizar-en","tag-distribution","tag-future","tag-horeca-2","tag-red-paralela","tag-wholesalers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The future of distribution (5-year outlook) - Red Paralela BCN S.L.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A hypothesis on the future of distribution (5-year outlook) Here it is. 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